Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.053528 0.061072 0.069536 0.079783 0.091911 0.105881 0.123298
2025-11-30 0.042943 0.052410 0.063945 0.079197 0.099068 0.124415 0.159739
2025-12-07 0.035316 0.045643 0.059155 0.078471 0.105951 0.144549 0.204553
2025-12-14 0.028768 0.039061 0.053391 0.075361 0.109246 0.161392 0.251661
2025-12-21 0.022740 0.032157 0.045961 0.068425 0.105600 0.167692 0.286465
2025-12-28 0.019545 0.028802 0.043111 0.067897 0.112132 0.192995 0.366366
2026-01-04 0.017282 0.026490 0.041470 0.069061 0.122201 0.228896 0.487654
2026-01-11 0.015217 0.024159 0.039394 0.069084 0.130522 0.265623 0.636717
2026-01-18 0.013483 0.022107 0.037437 0.068948 0.138815 0.306933 0.832068
2026-01-25 0.011801 0.019886 0.034796 0.066899 0.142606 0.340455 1.039198
2026-02-01 0.010248 0.017676 0.031807 0.063483 0.142351 0.364428 1.244612
2026-02-08 0.009309 0.016474 0.030590 0.063709 0.151500 0.421535 1.655540
2026-02-15 0.008441 0.015312 0.029313 0.063661 0.160599 0.487131 2.227066
2026-02-22 0.007793 0.014494 0.028625 0.064935 0.174422 0.581551 3.169000
2026-03-01 0.007195 0.013692 0.027840 0.065809 0.187825 0.688282 4.515757
2026-03-08 0.006528 0.012657 0.026353 0.064457 0.193632 0.770341 5.995109
2026-03-15 0.005741 0.011266 0.023820 0.059579 0.185179 0.779117 6.847386
2026-03-22 0.005337 0.010668 0.023104 0.059858 0.196457 0.905915 9.815634
2026-03-29 0.005042 0.010279 0.022841 0.061476 0.214275 1.097012 15.351677
2026-04-05 0.004726 0.009800 0.022273 0.062012 0.228233 1.288545 23.334854
2026-04-12 0.004432 0.009339 0.021677 0.062320 0.241755 1.504733 35.961362
2026-04-19 0.004100 0.008745 0.020636 0.060850 0.246205 1.660689 50.751810
2026-04-26 0.003754 0.008082 0.019314 0.058069 0.242779 1.745744 65.703552